Knowing which sectors are most exposed to rising energy costs is only the first step. The next one — the step that turns an analysis into a governance tool — is understanding where those sectors are concentrated, how many people work in them and what happens to those communities when energy prices spike. Reading that ceramics is an energy-intensive sector in a statistical table is one thing; being the mayor of Sassuolo on the day half the kilns shut down is quite another.

A vulnerability with a precise address

Italy is a country of industrial districts — not a homogeneous production system spread evenly across the territory, but a network of deep, historically rooted local specialisations: ceramics in Emilia, steel in Puglia, paper in Tuscany, chemicals in Veneto, glass in Murano. This geographical concentration of manufacturing is at once the strength of the Italian production model — economies of scale, short value chains, know-how accumulated over decades — and its main structural weakness in the face of energy shocks.

When gas prices rise, they do not rise equally for everyone. They rise most sharply for those who burn gas in enormous quantities every day to fire tiles, smelt metals, dry paper or produce chemical resins. And these actors are not randomly distributed across the country: they are concentrated in specific districts, in specific municipalities, where they often represent the only major local employer.

The Municipal Energy Exposure Index (EEI) developed by Civiqa and OpenEconomics enables a territorial ranking of vulnerability by cross-referencing sectoral energy intensity with oil & gas feedstock dependence and the employment structure of each municipality. Three categories of high-risk areas emerge, each with a distinct profile.

The first category is that of dual-exposure districts, where both energy intensity and oil & gas dependence are high. Taranto and Brindisi — home to one of the largest steelmaking hubs in Europe — and Porto Marghera — with its historic petrochemical cluster — are the clearest examples. In these territories, every energy shock propagates through two channels simultaneously: direct production costs rise (electricity and gas for industrial processes) and feedstock costs rise (naphtha, gas as a chemical feedstock). The operating margin of firms is squeezed from both sides.

The second category comprises districts with high "pure" energy intensity: Sassuolo for ceramics, Lucca and Pistoia for paper, Murano for glass. Here the core issue is natural gas as fuel for high-temperature thermal processes. Tile firing takes place at over 1,000 degrees; paper production requires continuous steam; the artistic glass of Murano is literally impossible without gas-fired furnaces. These processes cannot be electrified in the short term with currently available technologies, making these districts structurally dependent on gas markets.

The third category is emerging-risk areas, such as Brescia and the Vallecamonica valley for foundries, or the Calabrian municipalities specialised in cement and bricks: sectors with medium-to-high energy intensity but less diversified local production structures, which amplify the impact of any contraction in activity.

When high energy prices become an employment crisis

Italy experienced the transmission mechanisms described above particularly acutely during the 2021–2022 energy crisis, when natural gas prices in Europe reached levels more than ten times higher than the historical average of the previous decade. In those months, the damage to the production system was immediate and visible: dozens of ceramics plants reduced shifts or suspended output; several Venetian glass furnaces shut down for weeks; entire basic chemicals subsectors cut volumes to avoid producing at a loss.

The typical sequence is always the same. First comes margin compression, absorbed by the firm for as long as possible. Then reduced working hours and recourse to short-time work schemes. Then, if the shock is prolonged, the temporary closure of the least efficient plants. Finally, in the most severe cases, relocation or permanent closure. Each phase carries a precise social cost, measured in lost working hours, in families seeing their incomes shrink and in young people unable to find jobs when they leave the district's vocational schools.

The territorial dimension of this risk is far from homogeneous. In the North — Lombardy, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna and Piedmont — more than 60% of Italy's manufacturing district employment is concentrated, and therefore most of the absolute energy exposure in terms of workers. But some areas of the Centre and South face an even sharper relative vulnerability: the Puglia steel hub, the Sicilian ceramics districts, the Calabrian cement areas operate in contexts with lower local economic diversification, weaker informal employment safety nets and lower household capacity to absorb income shocks. When a large factory stops in Taranto, there is no other sector to absorb the workers, as might happen in Milan or Brescia.
‍

Three levers for municipalities

Municipalities do not set gas prices and do not negotiate supply contracts for large firms. But this does not condemn them to passivity. The EEI analysis points to at least three concrete levers for indirect intervention that turn risk awareness into active policy.

The first lever is municipal energy planning. A municipality that knows it hosts a ceramics district or a high-energy-intensity foundry can act pre-emptively: promote the formation of industrial energy communities, support the installation of photovoltaic and storage systems in industrial areas and embed energy efficiency incentives in spatial planning tools. This is not direct intervention on energy costs, but it does reduce structural dependence. Over the long term, a district that covers 20–30% of its own energy needs with local renewables is significantly less vulnerable to shocks on international gas markets.

The second lever is engagement in institutional forums. Knowing precisely the energy risk profile of a given territory is a powerful negotiating argument. A mayor who brings a quantitative analysis demonstrating the structural exposure of their municipality to coordination tables with the Region or to the Ministry of Economic Development has stronger tools to access European Just Transition Fund resources, to include their district in programme agreements for reindustrialisation and to secure priority in the allocation of National Energy and Climate Plan funds.

The third lever is early monitoring of employment crises. An early warning system based on EEI and OG indices, updated at least every six months, would enable local authorities to anticipate crises before they become social emergencies. If the index signals rising vulnerability — because gas prices are climbing and the local district has high exposure — the municipality can act in good time: contact major local employers, prepare protocols for short-time work schemes, open talks with employment agencies on reskilling programmes. Prevention is always less costly than managing an emergency.
‍

The map municipalities never had

Until now, no public instrument systematically cross-referenced the local production structure with energy intensity and oil & gas dependence data at municipal level. Existing analyses stopped at regional or, at best, provincial level: useful for national decision-makers, but essentially unusable by a local economic development officer in a municipality of 50,000 inhabitants who needs to understand the real risk profile of their territory.

Civiqa's Municipal Energy Exposure Index — built by cross-referencing NACE-sector employment data available on OpenCoesione with Istat energy statistics and Eurostat input–output tables — fills this gap. It is not a ranking to showcase at a press conference: it is an operational tool for making local industrial policy with greater awareness and better data.

In the coming months, Civiqa will publish the full interactive map of Italian municipalities classified by EEI, enabling each territory to view the underlying sectoral breakdown, benchmark against similar municipalities and access the raw data. Knowing where you are vulnerable is not bad news: it is the necessary condition for no longer being so.
‍

Data sources: Istat (sectoral energy intensity, value added, employment), Eurostat (symmetric input–output tables), OpenCoesione (municipal employment by NACE sector). Analysis: OpenEconomics / Civiqa.
‍

📌 Read also: Italian production system and energy risk: who is most exposed? — the first article in this series, covering the methodology and the most vulnerable sectors.

‍